After a twelve-year absence, the NHL is finally returning to the Olympic stage.

Other attempts to satisfy the appetite for best-on-best men’s international hockey have seen some success. The 2016 World Cup of Hockey and the 2025 Four Nations Face-Off gave hockey fans something to feel patriotic about and continued to remind us of the passion that exists in international competition. These tournaments were fun, but they weren’t the Olympics. It’s hard to compare any international tournament to the Olympic Games; the tradition and excitement that surround the event aren’t matched by many others, and for players and fans alike, it remains the ultimate stage for international hockey.

These games will feature almost entirely first-time Olympians coming from the NHL, with very little international play to base prediction from. The unfamiliarity with this style of hockey makes it difficult to predict what trends will carry the contending nations…but I’m still going to try.

From individual performances to full positional efforts, each gold medal hopeful has something unique that will separate them from the rest.

​

Canada – Play Between the Pipes

There’s no trickery with this Canadian side. We all know they possess a group of skaters as dangerous as anyone, with the ability to glide through most of the Olympic competition. But there is one genuine uncertainty with this team, one that every hockey fan in the country is more than familiar with. The goaltending.

This isn’t a new problem for the Canadian national team; it was well documented heading into the Four Nations Face-Off as well, and seemed like a real factor in preventing a Canadian victory. Ultimately, it wasn’t a major issue. Canada still won the tournament, and Jordan Binnington was fantastic in the championship game against the United States. Even with that performance just a year ago, the noise surrounding Canada’s goaltending hasn’t quieted. In fact, it might be even louder.

The major concern this season has been the play of Binnington with St Louis. Coming out of the Four Nations tournament, it felt like he was destined to be Canada’s man in Italy, but his play this season has to leave an uneasy feeling about giving him the starting role. Binnington’s season hasn’t just been bad; it’s been a disaster. Out of the 76 goaltenders who have seen at least 200 shots this season, he ranks 72nd in save percentage, 75th in goals saved above average, and 76th in goals saved above expected. To put it simply, Binnington has been one of the worst goalies in the NHL this season. He’s even lost the full-time starting role with the Blues, now splitting time evenly with Joel Hofer.

Looking from a surface-level point-of-view, the decision for the Canadian management team should be simple. Logan Thompson, who was not selected to represent Canada at the Four Nations, has been one of the best goalies in the world for a couple of years now. Among the same group as Binnington, he ranks 10th in save percentage, 3rd in goals saved above average, and 2nd in goals saved above expected. Unfortunately, these decisions are never as simple as they should be. Thompson is currently dealing with an upper-body injury that has kept him out of the Capitals lineup since January 27th. Although he expects to be ready for the trip to Italy, it’s uncertain if he’ll feel any lingering effects from the injury that could limit his play.

The Canadian management team clearly felt comfortable selecting Binnington to the roster, even though they had plenty of reason not to. Thompson should be given the opportunity to be Canada’s man in goal; he’s earned it, but it’s hard to ignore the team’s fascination with Binnington. Even if Binnington starts game one, Canada will have an extremely capable backup to rely on.

​

USA – Centre Scoring

Like Canada, this American roster is completely loaded with talent, which makes it difficult to pinpoint something that may cause them problems during the games. However, one thing to focus on will be the play of their primary centers, and if they can produce at a higher rate than the Four Nations.

The States beat Canada in their round robin meeting at the Four Nations and then took them to overtime in their eventual loss in the championship game. I want to highlight the success they had in that tournament because they did so with a combined zero(!) goals from Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes. Three players who were selected within the top two picks of their respective draft classes, all with the talent to heavily impact a tournament of this magnitude. It’s unclear if Hughes will see much time at center, but Matthews and Eichel will almost certainly center the top two lines for the Americans, and are going to be heavily relied on to drive offence. When looking at a potential USA vs Canada matchup, the center group for the Americans will have to compete with the likes of Connor McDavid and Nathan Mackinnon, arguably the two best players in the world. I’m not saying Matthews, Eichel, and Hughes will need to out-produce the Canadian duo individually, but improved production from that group should be expected.

The Tkachuk brothers, along with Jake Guentzel, stole the show for the Americans at the Four Nations, providing most of their goals. There’s nothing wrong with relying on that trio for offensive production; they’re all exceptional players, and are all predicted to play key roles for the USA in Italy. But if the Americans want to show the hockey world that they can conquer a best-on-best tournament, they’re going to need support from their top centermen.

Jack Eichel has been terrific for the Knights this year. He’s top ten in league scoring with 68 points, and has fully developed into one of the best players in the NHL. Matthews and Hughes have gone through a little more adversity this year. With just 26 goals and 48 points through 51 games, Matthews is on pace for his lowest production totals since his rookie season, while Hughes has dealt with a freak injury that saw him miss 21 games for the Devils. Neither player is playing up to the caliber that they’re capable of, and both the Maple Leafs and Devils are in the middle of disappointing seasons in the standings. The Americans are heading into the games with two of their most important forwards playing well below their capabilities; that’s a fact. But there’s also no better opportunity for the two stars to put this NHL season behind them and compete for their country on the biggest stage in the world.

Sweden – Stars Being Stars…Up Front

On paper, Sweden is by far the biggest threat to disrupt a Canadian and American battle for the gold medal. This is an extremely talented roster, with a defence group that will rival any other. Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Gustav Forsling are some of the names that will highlight the Swedish defence core, which should be heavily relied on for success in this tournament. The defence core is the biggest reason to believe in a Swedish gold medal, but it’s probably not enough by itself. The goaltending looks solid, with the Minnesota Wild’s duo of Jesper Welsredt and Filip Gustavsson expected to get most of the work, but it’s the forward group that will determine how far this team will go.

​

William Nylander, Filip Forsberg, and Lucas Raymond are some of the most interesting names in the entire tournament to keep an eye on. In the Four Nations, the trio combined for zero goals and just five assists across Sweden’s three games. To put it simply, that isn’t good enough, and Sweden’s Olympic fate won’t be any better if they can’t get some help from their top forwards.

​

It should go without saying that every team in this tournament would greatly benefit from their top scorers playing like top scorers. But it’s a bit different for Sweden. Outside of Canada and the States, no other country has the talent of this Swedish team, and they showed that last year. Despite their loss to Finland, Sweden took Canada to overtime in a 3-2 loss, and actually beat the USA 2-1 in their final game. They had a solid tournament and kept up with the two powerhouses without much support from their star NHL forwards.

​

They may not possess a talent like Connor McDavid or Nathan Mackinnon, or a goal-scoring threat like Auston Matthews, but there are game-breakers in Sweden’s forward crop, and a hot stretch from that group could see them deep into the medal round.

​

Finland – Surprise Depth

Unlike the Americans and the Swedes, I don’t think Finland’s top talent is going to be the difference in them making a push for the gold medal. They’ve got premier talent, Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heskanen, and Sebastian Aho are bona fide stars in the NHL, and will undoubtedly be instrumental in Finland’s success during the games. But it kind of ends there. Roope Hintz, Anton Lundell, Arturri Lehkonen, and Esa Lindell are in Finland’s next tier of talent. Although they’re all very good NHLers, they don’t quite bring the value that is featured on the Canadians, Americans, and Swedes.

Aleksander Barkov being unavailable to compete is a near insurmountable loss for the Fins, and it means they’re going to need production from other parts of the lineup. In the Four Nations, it was Mikael Granlund who stepped up for his country, scoring three goals (which included the overtime winner against Sweden) and four points in Finland’s three games, leading the team in both categories. It doesn’t have to be Granlund stepping up for a second straight tournament, but it will have to be someone. One or two players in the depth of this Finnish roster need to take their game to another level if they want to contend with the other top teams.

Eetu Lustorinen and Oliver Kapanen are two guys who stick out to me as potential Olympic heroes for Finland. Both should find themselves at the bottom of the lineup, but I think they have the chance to move up as the tournament progresses. Both Lustorinen and Kapanen have shown the ability to play with talented players with their NHL clubs, and could be tasked with supporting some of Finland’s top talent at some point during the games. Whether it’s Lustorinen, Kapanen, or someone else I failed to mention, Finland will need an unlikely spark if they want to upset in Italy.

The Fins are always a pesky team, and almost always play up to their competition during international events. As the defending Olympic gold medalists, there should be a bit of added pressure to prove they can repeat that performance during a true best-on-best event. They won’t come into the games as the top favourite for the gold medal, but it’s not unlike the Finns to find a way to make some noise.

​

Czechia – David Pastrnak

The Czechs are certainly the biggest longshot on this list, but they have the pieces to make a run if everything goes right. One of those pieces is David Pastrnak.

Pastrnak shouldn’t need much introduction. He’s on pace for his fourth straight 100-point season and is widely regarded as one of the premier talents in the NHL. Martin Necas is another star name to watch for Czechia, with others like Thomas Hertl, Filip Hronek, and Lucas Dostal also possessing solid NHL pedigrees. The Czechs are far away in terms of depth compared to some of the other powerhouse nations, but there’s something about possessing top-tier talent that should give them some sort of hope heading into the games.

You could make a strong case that Dostal is the most important piece for Czechia this tournament. Goaltending is going to be incredibly important for most teams, with the ability to steal a game (or a medal) based on the single-game elimination format of the Olympics. With Czechia entering the games as a second-tier contender, they’re going to need some special performances if they want to medal. Dostal will be important to any Czech success, but I think it will come down to Pastrnak to truly give them a shot at competing.

​

Olympic hockey is unlike any other international event. For most of these players, it’s the biggest tournament they’ll play in their entire careers. The beauty of international hockey is the extreme sense of pride that the players hold. It’s more than just playing for your teammates; it’s about playing for your country, and when the stakes are that high, upsets usually follow. Which makes the Olympic Games the ultimate stage. Where players become national heroes and hold something that lasts a lifetime. With NHL players returning, the Games retake their proper form. True best-on-best hockey. Something that’s unmatched in the sporting world, and something we get to witness once more.