Team/Player Analysis

Mattias Samuelson: The Biggest Breakout in Hockey

Ethan AlexanderNovember 29, 2025

In the past decade, the NHL draft has seen only three defensemen taken with the first overall pick. Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Matthew Shaeffer make up those three top selections, but more interestingly, it’s the Sabres who have selected two of them. Even with two first overall selections on their blueline, there’s another mid twenties Dman who’s been making noise in Buffalo this year, and he might be in the midst of the biggest breakout in the entire league. Mattias Samuelson has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL so far in 2025, simple as that, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say he’s been more impressive than both Power and Dahlin. 

Let’s start here, among all Sabres defencemen this season Samuelson ranks first in both regular and expected goals for percentage, while placing second in shots for and corsi for percentage behind only Dahlin (Evolving Hockey). The surface level production has seen a huge jump as well, with Samuelson setting a career high in goals (5) just twenty one games into the new season. His twelve points is also just two back from his career best, and he’s doing all of it while logging more ice time than he’s ever seen in the NHL (21:58). What’s even more impressive about the significant production jump is that he’s doing it without any help from the powerplay. Dahlin, Power, and Bowen Byram take up all the blueline minutes on the Sabres powerplay units, which has left Samuelson to rely solely on his even strength play to put up points. His 17.2% shooting percentage is bound to regress back to a career norm, but the impressive on-ice metrics give me confidence that Samuelson can maintain solid offensive production and continue being one of the more impactful all-around Dmen in the league. 

Samuelson has played most of his five on five minutes this year paired with Dahlin, so it wouldn’t be shocking if some thought his strong play was being carried by one of the truly elite defensemen in the league. But that couldn’t be farther from the truth. I probably don’t need to tell anyone that the Sabres are a much worse hockey team when the Dahlin-Samuelson duo is off the ice (in pretty much every facet), but the numbers get much more interesting when evaluating the minutes where the two have been separated. In the 171 five on five minutes that Samuelson has played this year away from Dahlin he’s seen a 58.07% expected goals for percentage and has outscored opponents 12-9. The goal rates are impressive, but the chance rates might be even more so. Samuelson’s running a 60.28% scoring chances for percentage and a 62.71% high danger chances for percentage in those same five on five minutes. It’s incredible what Samuelson and the Sabres have been able to generate in his minutes away from one of the games best Dmen, especially since the team has generally seen quite poor on-ice results this season.

I truly can’t say enough about how impressive Samuelson has been this year. He’s undoubtedly been one of the most interesting stories in the league and is yet another exciting young piece in this Sabres core. At 25 years old, and under contract through 2029-30 (at just a $4.3 million cap hit), it feels like Samuelson’s breakout is happening at just the right time for a Buffalo core that desperately needs to take that next step.