Team/Player Analysis

Jason Robertson: Betting on a Superstar

Ethan AlexanderDecember 8, 2025

The Dallas Stars certainly have no lack of star power on their roster. From young talent like Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley, to more proven commodities like Mikko Rantanen and Miro Heiskanen. Even in net, Jake Oettinger is one of the biggest names at the position. They seem to have it all, but there’s one player in particular who’s resurgence has the ability to push them over the top, and this might be the year he does it. 

Jason Robertson seemed to be on the fast track to superstardom just a few seasons ago, scoring 41 goals and 79 points in his age 22 season back in 2021-22 and following that up with a career best 46 goals and 109 points the next year. Although Robertson’s breakout was incredibly impressive, the following two seasons didn’t quite yield the same results, with both seasons seeing him finish below a point per game. On the surface, it seemed like Robertson hit a wall, his production wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t maintaining the superstar level we saw in the years prior, and it led to his name being floated in trade talks this past off-season. Ultimately, Jim Nill and the Stars front office found a way to keep the roster under the salary cap without having to deal one of their core pieces, and unsurprisingly, it’s paying off in a big way. Through 27 games, Robertson leads the Stars with 16 goals and 35 points, and is on pace to set career highs in both. To some, this season from Robertson might seem a bit shocking, to others, it might seem like a star player re-finding his game as he enters his true prime. Either way, the data from the past two seasons created a complex situation for the Stars front office, would Robertson return to superstar status? Or would he continue to plateau at his current production. 

The case for Robertson’s return to superstardom wasn’t that hard to find. His 2023-24 season saw him post nearly identical five-on-five on-ice results (xGF%, CF%, SF%) as the previous two seasons, the seperator was his 10.76% (five-on-five) shooting percentage, which was a noticible decrease from both 2022-23 (13.47%) and 2021-22 (13.84%). He also saw a major dip in his powerplay production, dropping from 13 goals and 41 points in 2022-23 to just 9 goals and 28 points in 2023-24. At the time, it would’ve been easy to think the shooting percentage would improve back to it’s previous rates, the powerplay production would get back on track, and Robertson’s production would skyrocket. But things aren’t always that simple. The 2024-25 season really complicated things in Robertson’s case. Unsurprisingly, the shooting percentage did improve, quite a bit actually. In fact, it probably improved too much. A 17.29% five-on-five shooting percentage is a sizable increase over the previous three seasons, and suggests that there may have been some lucky involved. Although the percentage in impressively high, and led to Robertson scoring 23 five-on-five goals (tied for thirteenth best in the league), it doesn’t quite reflect the quality of chances that he created. On top of the abnormally high shooting percentage, Robertson’s on-ice results saw a dip from their usual standards, seeing his xGF%, CF%, and SH% reach lower marks than any of the previous three seasons. Like I mentioned, the 17.29% shooting percentage at five-on-five inflated Robertson’s overall production quite a bit, as he recorded just 263 shot attempts at five-on-five, a far lower total than either of the previous three years (next closest being 295 in 2021) (moneypuck.com). According to Evolving-Hockey, he also registered just 133 individual scoring chances for at five-on-five, which again, was by far his lowest mark since 20-21 (next closest being 158). 

The 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons gave us two different looks at Robertson. The production was almost identical, but under the hood, one year seemed to replicate his breakout seasons from years prior, while the other dictated that real regression might be in play. Even with some concerning trends from last season, the decision to keep Robertson on the roster should have been an easy one. He’s incredibly talented, he’s just entering his prime ages, and he’s playing for a new contract this summer. The risk was small, and the reward was a return to one of the top wingers in the game. 

We know now that the Stars seem to have made the right choice. Robertson is on pace to set career highs in production, and his underlying numbers are much more similar to his breakout seasons than last year. Playing at this level, Robertson is a true superstar talent, and he might be the piece that finally gets the Stars their Stanley Cup.