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In a year where the Eastern Conference playoff race is as tight as any fan could hope for, it’s probably not too difficult to pick out a team that you think could make a surprise run deep into the playoffs. There’s a handful of teams that fit the mold of a Cinderella squad in this season’s East, but for me, there’s one that jumps a little further off the page.

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have flown a little under the radar all season long, which isn’t exactly a shock. On top of the Jackets being a relatively unpopular media market, they had a fairly disappointing stretch before the Christmas break, which overshadowed their strong start to the season and likely left them out of the minds of many around the league. A December 13th loss to the Vegas Golden Knights marked their fifth in a row and left them with a 13-13-6 record at the time. The Blue Jackets weren’t widely viewed as Cup contenders at the season’s opening, but I certainly believe there was excitement about the direction of the club, and the team’s record by mid-December wasn’t really reflective of where they would want to be in their journey towards contention. The bright spot for the Jackets at that time was the amount of the season that remained, and I think they’ve done a great job righting the ship since the new year.

With fifteen games remaining in their schedule, Columbus currently boasts a 35-21-11 record, which has them just one point back of both the Bruins and Red Wings for a Wild Card spot and just two points back of the Islanders for the third Metro division playoff spot, with a game in hand on all three clubs. In short, the Jackets are right in the thick of this Eastern Conference playoff race, and there are a few factors that I think will not only get them into the playoffs when the season is said and done, but give them a legitimate shot at making a run to the end.

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The Attack

The Blue Jackets have done a great job creating offence this season. It’s a little odd, considering their leading scorer among forwards is Kirill Marchenko with just 58 points in 62 games played, but they create chances at a rate that’s not too far off from the league’s best.

According to Evolving-Hockey.com, Columbus currently runs the 8th-best expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) number in the entire league, which is likely due to their ability to get plenty of pucks through to the net. The Jackets are 4th in the league, averaging thirty shots on goal per game this season, and they aren’t just coming from weak opportunities, as they’ve generated the third most high-danger shots this season as well.

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The strength of the Blue Jackets’ attack lies in their depth. Without a true superstar forward to rely on for consistent production, some teams have to find other ways to generate their offense on a nightly basis. Eleven Blue Jackets have tallied double-digit goals to this point in the season, which includes names like Denton Mateychuk and Mathieu Olivier. The deadline addition of Connor Garland is another solid contributor to the team’s depth, and is someone who can easily slide up and down the lineup when needed. The improvements from Adam Fantilli in the second half, plus the resurgence of Charlie Coyle, are more reasons why this Jacket offence can be so potent, and why I think it’s got the chance to suffocate teams come playoff time.  

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Zach Werenski

It’s impossible to talk about the Columbus Blue Jackets and not talk about Zach Werenski. He’s a superstar, he’s their best player, and he’s likely to win his first Norris Trophy at season’s end. I mentioned in the last section that the team doesn’t have a superstar forward to rely on for consistent production, but I didn’t say they were devoid of any superstar talent at all.

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Werenski isn’t just among the best defensemen in the NHL; he’s among the best players. Among all NHL skaters with at least 1000 minutes played this season, Evolving-Hockey has Werenski 8th in xGF/60 and shot for/60, 10th in corsi for/60, and 23rd overall in expected goals for percentage. He’s an elite offensive threat, there’s no denying that, and few teams around the league can say they have a blue liner as dangerous as Zach Werenski on their roster. We all know he’s a special player; he’s eclipsed the twenty-goal mark now for a second consecutive season, and is on pace to break his career high of 82 points that he set last year. Someone who can consistently log over twenty-five minutes a night and impact the game in the way he does is incredibly hard to find, which makes him likely to be the best player in several matchups the Blue Jackets could see on their path through the Eastern Conference.

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Goaltending

The most underrated contribution to the Blue Jackets season had undoubtedly come between the pipes. Elvis Merzlikins and Jett Greaves started the season sharing the net pretty evenly, but as we now enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s Greaves who’s being trusted to carry the bulk of starting duties. It’s for a good reason, as Greaves has quietly been one of the better goaltenders in the league. According to Evolving-Hockey, Greaves ranks 10th in both goals saved above expected and goals saved above average among all goaltenders this season, while his .909 save percentage ranks 11th among all goalie who have started at least 30 games.

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Goaltending around the league has been an interesting topic the past few years, with league-wide save percentages continuing to drop; it’s more impactful than ever to have a strong, reliable goaltender who can steal you wins during the long season. Even more so, strong goalie play could completely flip a playoff series if the right keeper gets hot. It’s not unreasonable to be a bit skeptical of Greaves heading into the playoffs. He’s having a fantastic year, but this is the first season we’ve seen him get a serious amount of playing time, and he’s yet to make a playoff appearance in his young NHL career. I’m not saying he can’t rise to the occasion and be an important piece of a Blue Jackets playoff run, but it’s possible the team might need some help from Merzlikins along the way if Greaves finds some inconsistency.

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If it wasn’t already obvious, I’m fairly confident the Blue Jackets will hold on to their current playoff spot and be a scary force come mid-April. A quick look at the standings will show you just how open the Eastern Conference remains. With so much uncertainty, a team that finds its groove at the right time could see themselves on a deep run this spring…and I’m betting it’s the Blue Jackets.