Some thoughts and takeaways from the Montreal Canadiens 2025-26 season opener

You would be hard pressed to find a better way to open an NHL calendar than Habs v Leafs. No matter the state of the teams, It’s a matchup that tends to deliver more often than not, and for many, their meeting at the beginning of October signifies the start of a brand new season. 

It’s probably best not to draw any major takeaways from just one game…but what’s the fun in that! So I wanted to share some thoughts and takeaways on Wednesday night’s opener, even if they should be taken with a (probably pretty large) grain of salt. 

The Result

Habs nation is as passionate a fanbase as you’re going to find on this side of the Atlantic. So much so, that any loss throughout the season is going to result in fans voicing frustration and hurling blame around to anyone who can take it. But we’d all be lying if we said a loss to the Leafs didn’t hurt a little bit more, no matter the time of year. 

Although a 5-2 scoreline doesn’t look great on the surface, I don’t think it encapsulates how this game was played, and I believe there’s plenty of positives that the Habs could take from this loss. 

Let’s start here, I thought the Habs were the better team in this hockey game. They were the more dangerous offensive team throughout the night, and did a good job of shutting down some of the Leafs big dogs, and overall, probably deserved a better result than they got. Evolving Hockey (EVH) had the Habs with a 55.4% Corsi For Percentage (CF%) and a 61.6% Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) for the night, while Natural Stat Trick credited them with 54% of the scoring chances, and 53% of the high danger scoring chances. I’m not trying to say the Habs completely dominated this game (most of those numbers mentioned are only slight advantages), but I was pleased with overall play from a Canadiens side that is still trying to prove they can hang with the top threats of the Eastern Conference. If they keep up this level of play, they should find themselves winning more of those games than not. 

The Positives

Top Line Ready to Go

With so many questions about the hole at centre on the second line, and worries about chemistry between the middle six forward group, the first line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky has to be the force that drives this Canadiens offence. It may seem a bit silly to state that a hockey team’s top forward line should be the main source of offense for the club, but I think the Habs first line might be the most critical trio to a team’s success this season in the entire league. Montreal is relying an awful lot on a healthy bounce back season from Kirby Dach, and the production of a nineteen year old rookie in Ivan Demidov to help build some depth scoring on the roster. Even though Dach looked good in the pre-season, and I fully believe in the potential of Demidov, there still remains something to be desired about the middle six forward group. Especially for a team with playoff aspirations. 

Which brings us back to line number one. Even though they didn’t record a point, the trio spent the majority of their shifts in the offensive zone, and created a plethora of quality scoring chances. According to MoneyPuck.com (MP), the Slafkovsky-Suzuki-Caufield line saw a 78% xGF% and a 72% CF% at 5 on 5, which was the highest and second highest mark among all forward lines in the game respectively. Slafkovsky really stood out among the three, finishing with six shots on goal (on nine attempts) and 0.93 expected goals (MP), both the highest marks on the team. 

When talking about a one game sample size, it’s probably best to not get hung up on the box score to evaluate individual performances. Despite not combining for a goal, the Habs first line was arguably the best in the game, and should give fans some confidence that they can do the heavy lifting needed to propel this Canadiens offence to another level. 

Impressive Debuts

Noah Dobson and Zack Bolduc were the two major adds Montreal made this offseason, and it didn’t take them long to show why they were targeted to help bolster the roster. 

Both of these players add incredibly valuable skillsets that were lacking on the Habs roster a year ago. Dobson brings a steady two way presence to the top four, and allows other Dmen on the roster (Guhle, Matheson, Carrier) to slot into roles more suited for their playstyles. While Bolduc brings a big physical presence to the top six, and helps add some skill outside the first line. With Dobson being 25, and Bolduc only 22, It’s pretty clear that the Habs front office aquired these two players to be pieces of the present and the future, and they have to feel good about what they’ve seen so far. 

You could make a pretty compelling (and probably correct) case that Dobson was the best defenseman on the ice for the Canadiens against Toronto. He led all Habs blue liners in xGF% and CF% (EVH), and posted a 0.9 on-ice expected goal differential (EVH) (also best among Habs D), all while logging the most minutes on the team. What stood out most about his game was his ability to calmly and flawlessly retrieve pucks and break out of the defensive zone. Dobson is by no means a flashy player, but his ability to create transition offense through clean breakouts is an incredibly valuable skill that makes everyone else’s jobs so much easier. If you watched this game, you saw how valuable Dobson is going to be for the Canadiens for the foreseeable future. 

Bolduc also made an impressive mark on this game, scoring his first goals as a Canadien, and creating plenty of chaos forchecking and retrieving pucks in the ozone. As easy as it is to see Dobson’s value to the Habs, it’s probably just as easy to see Bolducs. His combination of speed, physicality, and skill should make him a staple in the Habs top nine for a number of years, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect him to become a consistent top sixer when the team is looking to contend. As I already alluded to, Bolduc’s forchecking and puck retrievals really stood out to me against the leafs, and I think it’s something that could really benefit someone like Ivan Demidov when thinking about different line combinations. 

Both new faces showed their value in game number one, and everyone in the Canadiens organization should feel confident about how they’ll contribute to the team’s success in 2025. 

The Negatives

Disappointing D’s

Kirby Dach and Ivan Demidov are two players whose play can dictate just how good the Habs offence can be this year. Solid seasons from these two will give the forward group some much needed depth in the middle six, and could unlock a new level to the teams scoring that wasn’t there last season. Unfortunately, neither of the two showed much to be confident about in Toronto. 

Now, I’m not saying that they’re destined to have terrible seasons, it’s only one game, and both of these players are coming into the season under circumstances that could take a while to adjust to. Nonetheless, Dach and Demidov were pretty disappointing, as they failed to create many quality offensive chances, and didn’t seem to gel very well with their new linemates. Demidov finished with just a 20.46% xGF% (EVH), while his line with Alex Newhook and Oliver Kapanen saw a 28.2%xGF% mark and were outshot 9-2 at five on five(MP). Dach didn’t fare much better, finishing with a 42.5% xGF% and a team worst 31% CF% (EVH). His line of Brendan Gallagher and Zach Bolduc were out chanced pretty heavily, posting a 36.4% CF% (worst of the team) and losing the five on five shot attempt battle 14-8 (MP). 

It’s probably not fair to clump these two players together considering the stages they’re at in their careers, and I’m far less concerned about the play of Demidov given his status as a nineteen year old rookie playing with a pair in Alex Newhook and Oliver Kapanen who are both more suited for bottom six checking roles. There’s real concern for me about Dach though, even just one game in. His lack of play driving ability is evident, and it still seems like he’s still missing the level of compete that’s needed to elevate someone’s game at the top level. Whether he’s still feeling the effects of the major knee injuries or not, this game wasn’t a strong confidence booster that he’ll be the answer for the Canadiens second line centre. 

Montembeault

The Canadiens goaltending situation seems to get more interesting every year. With the addition of top prospect Jacob Fowler to the organization just a few years ago, and the emergence of Jakub Dobes last season, the Habs seem to have a number of options between the pipes as they look to transition into tier one Stanley Cup contenders. 

Samuel Montembeault was a major storyline in Montreal last season, having started 60 games and finishing the year with 30.79 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which was good for third best among all netminders. At just 28 years old, it seemed like last season would solidify Montembeault as the franchises true number one goalie of the future, even with the younger talent knocking at the door. 

Unfortunately, the 2025-26 season opening loss to the Leafs was one that Montembeault is likely going to forget pretty soon. 3 goals against on 25 shots doesn’t jump out of the box score as a terrible, panic worthy performance, but this was far from Montembeault’s cleanest game as a Hab, and he was ultimately one of the major reasons the Canadiens weren’t able to come away with any standings points. 

The Habs did a solid job all night at suppressing major chances from the Maple Leaf offence, and I think you can look at all three goals that got past Montembealt as him being slightly out of position and slow reacting to the play. In the end, he saw a -0.79 GSAx across all strengths and would probably be the first to say that he needs to be much better. With game two of the season coming on Thursday (October 9) in Detroit, It’s expected that Jakub Dobes will get the start with a chance to create some interesting early-season drama between the pipes. 

Even with zero standings points to show for it, opening night wasn’t a bad effort for the Canadiens. Their top dogs looked like top dogs, and the new guys showed how they might be able to take this roster to the next level. Analyzing anything over a one game sample is always going to lead to overreactions and trends that could easily fade away as we get deeper into the season. But this game yielded more good than bad for Montreal, and I’m willing to believe it showed us a glimmer of what this roster is capable of.